M. Silchenko
Based · Singapore NUS · MSc, School of Computing, specialising in Statistics Tazapay · AI & Analytics Intern
Maksim Silchenko
Portfolio

Maksim Silchenko

Hi! I'm currently an MSc student at the NUS School of Computing, working at the intersection of causal inference, machine learning, and AI safety.

This year, I've received the BlueDot AI Safety Grant (Chain-of-Thought Interpretability), and won Google Cloud Rapid Agent Hackathon (Gold), ACM UbiComp/ISWC (Gold), AKBC @ EMNLP (Gold), WMT @ EMNLP, ArabicNLP @ EMNLP (Gold), the CAR-Bench Challenge @ IJCAI-ECAI 2026 (Silver), the RecSys-HR 2026 WorkRB Challenge (Gold), AlphaNova Quant Competition (9th out of 900). Previously, I was a winner of the National Mathematics Olympiad in Russia, placing in the top 0.015% nationally.

I've also finished the University of Oxford's 'ML Representation Learning & Generative AI' Bootcamp and the Beijing University of Posts & Telecommunications (BUPT) 'Agentic AI' Bootcamp, where I placed 1st in the final agentic AI competition.

Currently, I'm working as an AI Intern (Agents & Evals) at Tazapay, a stablecoin-based cross-border payments company, and as a Research Assistant on recommender systems at HONOR (China). Alongside this, I'm completing the TARA (ARENA) and BlueDot Technical AI Safety programmes.

My previous experience includes quantitative research at Orbuc, a London-based boutique crypto trading and research firm, as well as independent work in causal inference, Bayesian experimentation, and ML systems.

Latest blog
2026 · ~70 min read Essay

What the Leaderboards Are Actually Measuring

A critique of the public evaluation metrics for frontier AI models, using the launch week of Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra as the running case.

Read the essay
Funded AI-Safety Research (ongoing) · BlueDot Impact Rapid Grant

Does a language model's chain-of-thought actually cause its answer?

A Bayesian causal-mediation test of whether an LLM's stated reasoning drives its answer or is post-hoc, with calibrated uncertainty for scalable oversight.

X M Y PROMPT CoT ANSWER

Selected distinctions.

01

AKBC 2026 Shared Task @ EMNLP · 1st Place

0.7060 macro F1 in the AKBC 2026 Shared Task on predicting complete knowledge base entries from language models. Winning system paper at the AKBC workshop, EMNLP 2026, Budapest (Sep '26).

02

Google Cloud Rapid Agent Hackathon · 1st Place (Gold)

1st place ($5k prize), 15,000 teams, for AutoSRE, an autonomous on-call engineer that triages and resolves production incidents (Jul '26).

03

BlueDot Impact Rapid Grant

BlueDot Impact

Awarded a BlueDot Impact Rapid Grant (Jun '26) to fund Bayesian Causal Faithfulness for LLM Chain-of-Thought: calibrated uncertainty for whether a model's reasoning is faithful or post-hoc.

04

National Mathematics Olympiad Winner

Winner of the Russian National Mathematics Olympiad (Moscow Institute of Physics & Technology), top 0.015% nationally.

05

First-Class Honours & Top of Cohort

Bayes Business School

Graduated with First-Class Honours (highest distinction) from Bayes Business School; top of cohort in Quantitative Methods & Analytics, AI & Big Data, Capstone Project, and ESADE Mergers & Acquisitions.

06

Full Scholarships

National University of Singapore ESADE BUPT

Full Scholarships at the National University of Singapore (Spring 2025) and ESADE Business School (Autumn 2024) exchanges, plus a fully-funded scholarship for the Beijing University of Posts & Telecommunications Agentic AI Bootcamp (Jun to Jul 2026).

Other recent results.

Challenge
Result Solutions
Aug to Sep 2026
AKBC 2026 Shared Task @ EMNLP · Knowledge Base Construction from Language Models
1st place, 0.7060 macro F1 on the official test set. A 31B base model in completion mode, no training, no retrieval; the winning paper corrects how the field measures selection headroom. To appear at the AKBC workshop, EMNLP 2026 (Budapest).
1st Place Write-up ↗
Jul 2026
UbiComp 2026 · Trustworthy Agentic AI Challenge
1st place in the workshop challenge on trustworthy tool-using LLM agents. Paper accepted at the TCSAUC workshop, UbiComp/ISWC 2026; presenting in person in Shanghai on 12 October 2026, supported by a SIGMOBILE student travel grant.
1st Place solution
May to Aug 2026
RecSys-HR 2026 WorkRB Challenge · Skill Extraction at Taxonomy Scale
1st place. Given one line of a job advert, name the skills it asks for by ranking all 13,891 skills in the EU's official catalogue, scored on how well the top of that ranking matches expert annotations. Built for TechWolf and hosted at the RecSys 2026 HR workshop.
1st Place Write-up ↗
Jul to Aug 2026
BAREC Shared Task · Sentence-level Readability Assessment
1st place, Strict & Open tracks (85.3 QWK on the blind test). System paper submitted (BAREC Shared Task at ArabicNLP 2026 @ EMNLP 2026, Budapest).
1st Place solution
Aug 2026
CAR-Bench Challenge @ IJCAI-ECAI 2026 · Reliability of Tool-Using LLM Agents
2nd place, Track 1 (Open). In-car assistant agents judged on consistency and limit-awareness under ambiguous requests, domain policies and unavailable tools. Technical report published by the organizers.
2nd Place report
Aug 2026
WMT26 · Automated Translation Quality Evaluation · Challenge Sets
QEbreak: a pre-registered challenge set (2,886 segments, 10 language directions) accepted and run by the organizers over the task's metric submissions. System paper accepted; to appear as a poster at WMT26, EMNLP 2026 (Budapest).
Accepted Write-up ↗
Jul to Aug 2026
AlphaNova Quant Competition 5 · Alpha-Signal Research
Ranked 9th of 873 quants; 3 of 10 submitted signals accepted into the platform's uncorrelated quality set. Live evaluation runs to Oct 2026.
9th of 873 competition
2026
Jane Street Quantitative-Reasoning Puzzle
Feb, Jun and Jul 2026.
Solved Correct solution
Jul 2026
Wincent DragonByte 2026
1st Quals: ,  2nd Quals: .
Finalist quals
Jul 2026
BlueDot Impact's Technical AI Puzzle #1
Reverse-engineering a feature the network hid from linear probes.
Jul 2026
IBM Research 'Ponder This'
A combinatorial optimization puzzle.
Jun to Jul 2026
Beijing Agentic AI Bootcamp · Final Competition
1st place in the final AI Agent Competition.
1st Place
Aug 2026
ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge · Estimating a Random Network
Predicting the expected activations of a random 32-layer ReLU MLP under a compute budget 15,000x smaller than the one that produced the answer key. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampler on 6 scrambled Sobol nets.
Phase 1 Write-up ↗
Aug to Sep 2026
TikTok TechJam 2026 · Shadow Commit
A transaction layer for autonomous coding agents: each agent turn runs against a sealed copy of the workspace, the full set of effects it produced is judged after it runs, and nothing reaches the real workspace until a policy or a person approves it. Track 1 (safety middleware for AI coding agents).
Submitted showcase
Aug 2026
PSA Code Sprint 2026 · RELAY
An exception layer for container-terminal transhipment: after a disruption it identifies the connections about to be missed, re-plans a shift's limited budget against a digital twin with CP-SAT, and routes every action through a priced, reversible, human-approved decision on a tamper-evident record.
Submitted website
Aug 2026
American Express AI Hackathon 2026 · One Loop
One Loop: 1 transaction backbone serving 3 growth heads, answering who to sign, what to offer, and where growth comes next. A measurement layer puts a randomized holdout behind every partner campaign so lift is certified rather than asserted, validated on a real holdout of 4,193,878 rows.
Submitted website
Aug 2026
Apart Research Digital Minds Sprint · Masked Distress
A system prompt with no affect words cut Gemma-3-12B-IT's expressed distress by 83.5% of its natural separation while a probe read before generation did not fall. Preregistered, 6 held-out scenarios, divergence 1.05 [0.73, 1.39].
Submitted Write-up ↗
Aug 2026
BenchFlow 'Agent Skill Lift' · Static Skills and Meta-Skills
A seven-pack skill library and a skill generator for SkillsBench, built by reading task verifiers rather than task prompts. 14 development tasks, 3 conversions, 0 regressions, mean delta +0.3095, over 154 paired rollouts.
Submitted Write-up ↗
§ 01 · Internships
Jul 2026 to Present Current

Tazapay · AI & Analytics Intern

Cross-border payments start-up, backed by Sequoia Capital & Circle Ventures · Singapore

Feb 2026 to Apr 2026 Internship

Orbuc Research · Quantitative Research Intern

Statistical Modeling & Time-Series Research · London, UK

  • Developed a time-series anomaly-detection model that classifies latent states with Hidden Markov Models to flag unstable, low-predictability conditions, validated across 5 out-of-sample windows where it held up in 4 of 5.
  • Built an LLM agent that automatically classifies events from live news streams, grounding each call with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) over an embedded knowledge base, enforcing schema-constrained output, and aggregating results into a single risk score with a probabilistic layer.
  • Hardened the surrounding Python pipeline for reliability with SQL (SQLite) persistence of every event and classification, batched API calls, rate-limit handling, and an automated test suite.
  • Engineered the statistical analysis behind the firm's March 2026 research report, characterising 9 historical anomaly periods and identifying 4 statistically significant shifts in correlation structure.
Hidden Markov Models Anomaly Detection LLM Agent RAG SQLite Time-Series
Jan 2026 to Apr 2026 Internship

The TCM Group · Data & Analytics Consultant

Bayes Business School Capstone · Highest grade in cohort · London, UK

  • Designed a causal-inference framework (RCT-style wait-list control, paired hypothesis tests) to measure leadership-training outcomes, presented it to TCM's senior leadership, and saw it adopted as the standard for ongoing programme evaluation.
  • Replaced multiple-choice surveys that correlated poorly with on-the-job behaviour by engineering a serverless LLM scoring engine (TypeScript, Vercel, OpenAI) that grades open-ended scenario responses 0 to 10 against rubrics, deployed with Zod schema validation and automatic retry so malformed model output is never returned.
  • Built the hypothesis-testing methodology for evaluation: a decision rule that picks the correct paired test by sample size and distribution (Wilcoxon signed-rank, paired t-test etc.), reports effect sizes with CIs, and tests against a meaningful-change threshold rather than zero.
  • Built an automated evaluation harness that benchmarks the scorer against a hand-labelled gold dataset (0.90 Spearman correlation with human raters), then halved its scoring error with a cross-validated calibration that corrects the model's systematic bias.
Causal Inference RCT Design Hypothesis Testing LLM Rubric Scoring LLM-as-Judge Eval Calibration
Oct 2025 to Jan 2026 Internship

Oxford Comma Advisory · Data Analyst Intern

Education & Admissions Consultancy · London, UK

  • Cut university-shortlisting time from 2 hours to 3 minutes per student by achieving a 73% consultant approval rate on top-5 recommendations through a two-tower neural network trained on sparse implicit feedback with confidence-weighted negative sampling.
  • Found organic leads convert about 60% faster than paid channels and that early consultations carry a 2.3x hazard ratio, using Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional-hazards model on 800+ inquiries (non-converters right-censored).
  • Raised booking rates from 18% to 27% by training an XGBoost model (0.79 AUC) to predict which leads were most likely to book, then A/B-testing tailored follow-ups against the standard process.
Recommendation Systems Two-Tower NN Survival Analysis XGBoost A/B Testing
§ 02 · Projects
2026 Project

Olist Hierarchical Bayesian A/B Testing

Brazilian e-commerce panel · 97k orders · hierarchical Bayesian causal inference in PyMC 5

  • Reframed a flat marketplace A/B test as a causal-identification problem on a 97k-order panel, using a hierarchical Bayesian difference-in-differences in PyMC that corrected the policy effect from a naive −2pp to a DiD-identified +1.5pp.
  • Built the full analytics pipeline behind it (DuckDB medallion SQL, a NetworkX causal DAG, three Bayesian models, falsification tests) and translated the posterior into a costed −R$452K net envelope, turning an apparent per-customer win into a no-launch call.
  • Architected the analysis as a clean, importable Python package (ETL, feature builders, causal DAG, separate model factories per likelihood) with a DuckDB feature stack that rebuilds end-to-end in roughly five seconds.
  • Validated the models with held-out cross-validation (PSIS-LOO), posterior-predictive checks, and prior-sensitivity sweeps. The headline result shifted just 0.0004 logit across three hyperprior families.
PyMC 5 Hierarchical Bayes Difference-in-Differences DuckDB PSIS-LOO
2026 Project

A/B-Test Experimentation Guardrail

Experiment-safety auditing tool · SRM detection & causal inference · optional Claude tool-use agent

  • Built a command-line A/B-test guardrail that checks whether an experiment is safe to interpret, using a chi-square Sample Ratio Mismatch test that flagged a compromised 61/39 allocation a standard metric t-test runs straight past.
  • Separated genuine treatment effects from confounding with propensity score matching and Rosenbaum sensitivity bounds to return a clear launch verdict; validated on a 300k-row stratified sample of Criteo's real 13.98M-row Uplift experiment.
  • Built an optional Anthropic Claude tool-use agent mode: a bounded multi-turn loop that chooses which of 3 schema-defined tools to call next, with the LLM held off the numerical path so every figure comes from scipy and scikit-learn.
  • Designed the default pipeline to route deterministically and call the LLM once, at the end, narrating a code-decided verdict as a plain-English summary; one model call per audit, the statistical core covered by a 36-case pytest suite in CI (Python 3.10 to 3.12).
  • Engineered the tool as a production-shaped Python package (typed dataclasses, a custom exception hierarchy, an installable CLI, ruff-linted CI) with a data loader hardened against messy real-world exports; validating against the 14M-row Criteo dataset surfaced three production bugs, each fixed and locked down with a regression test.
SRM Detection Propensity Score Matching Claude Tool-Use Agent Criteo Uplift pytest + CI
2025 Project

Cost-Sensitive Churn Pipeline

Energy-utility SME churn · 14,606 customers · cost-sensitive, decision-aware modelling

  • Built a SMOTE-balanced Random Forest on 14,606 SME utility customers, tuning the decision threshold against a GBP cost matrix to cut expected misclassification cost by ~£15.9M on a sealed test fold.
  • Pressure-tested the headline savings by sweeping the three cost assumptions behind it (customer lifetime value, campaign cost, retention rate), reporting the £15.9M with the conditions it depends on instead of as a standalone claim.
  • Stress-tested the model for time decay by splitting customers on contract activation date and re-scoring the newest cohort, exposing a discrimination drop (test AUC ~0.67 to ~0.62) that established periodic retraining as a deployment precondition rather than an afterthought.
  • Turned the churn score into a retention action list by running permutation feature importance on the frozen test pipeline, isolating profit-margin variables as the dominant drivers so the business knew which accounts to prioritise and why.
  • Added a Random Survival Forest for time-to-churn (held-out concordance 0.71, vs 0.56 for the Cox model it replaced), validated it on a temporal holdout, and shipped the pipeline as a typed Python library with a 48-test CI suite.
SMOTE Cost-Sensitive Thresholding Random Survival Forest Permutation Importance CI Suite
2025 Project

Rare-Event Prediction & Reinforcement Learning for Sequential Allocation

Sovereign-default prediction · 34-year cross-country macro panel · 5-model benchmark + PPO from scratch

  • Implemented PPO with Generalised Advantage Estimation from scratch in TensorFlow/Keras over a 117-dimensional continuous action space; the learned policy beat a uniform-allocation baseline by ~13% in the deterministic setting and 5-9% under stochastic and contagion variants.
  • Built a rare-event classification pipeline on a 34-year cross-country macro panel: 117 entities, 21 features, a ~2.4% positive rate, with 88 hand-curated default events labelled against multiple authoritative sources.
  • Benchmarked five models on a temporal 1990-2014 / 2015-2023 split: logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and a Two-Tower neural network (a dual-embedding architecture from large-scale recommender systems). Random forest gave the best discrimination (AUC 0.83); the Two-Tower underperformed (AUC 0.68), which I report and diagnose rather than hide.
  • Built a perturbation-based sensitivity harness that exposed a policy under-responsiveness in the trained agent, then implemented Welford running z-score normalisation over the 1,878-dimensional continuous state as the candidate fix.
  • Packaged the work to production engineering standards: a typed src/ package, a 47-test pytest suite, and a GitHub Actions CI pipeline running a Python 3.10/3.11 test matrix and notebook validation.
Rare-Event Prediction Model Benchmark Two-Tower NN PPO + GAE TensorFlow / Keras
2025 Project

Credit Risk Classifier & MLOps Pipeline

Retail credit-risk modelling · probability-of-default under an asymmetric cost matrix · Q-learning

  • Built a probability-of-default model under an asymmetric cost matrix, lifting held-out profit by $363K over the default 0.5 threshold.
  • Architected the analytics codebase as an importable Python package with single-responsibility modules (data loading, threshold evaluation, calibration, RL environment), backed by an 82-test suite and a multi-version CI matrix.
  • Implemented tabular Q-learning for a finite-horizon inventory-optimisation MDP (deterministic seed, linear epsilon decay, illegal-action handling), and built the chronological 24/24-month evaluation that caught its in-sample edge as an overfit.
  • Implemented covariate-shift mitigations (importance weighting, cohort-adaptive thresholding) and a diagnostic that identified the cohort failure as a base-rate problem rather than covariate shift, recommending a 45% break-even repricing instead of a model retune.
Probability of Default Cost-Sensitive Classification Q-Learning Covariate Shift pytest + CI
§ 03 · Blog
2026 · ongoing Ongoing

Where State-of-the-Art LLM Evaluators Fail at Translation

Extending the WMT26 QEbreak findings (EMNLP 2026) beyond the challenge set

The QEbreak paper measured one thing: learned quality metrics punish added text far more than missing text. This write-up asks the wider question of what else the current LLM-based evaluators get wrong about translation quality, and why the same blind spots keep showing up across systems.

Machine Translation LLM-as-a-Judge Quality Estimation WMT26
Ongoing
2026 · ~70 min read Essay

What the Leaderboards Are Actually Measuring

A critique of the public evaluation metrics for frontier AI models

Arena rankings, benchmark scores and lab-reported numbers get read as measurements of capability. This essay asks what each of them measures and under which conditions a score says something about capability, using the launch week of Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra as the running case, with the same checks applied to both labs.

AI Evaluation Benchmarks Leaderboards Goodhart's Law Interactive
Read the essay
2026 · ~15 min read Essay

One in Twenty

The most overhyped threshold in statistics

Like a lot of people, when I was first introduced to the 0.05 significance threshold, I just took it for granted. Later, as I learned more statistics, I realized how confusing and misleading that hard line actually is. This essay explores why: a courtroom retelling where the p-value is the evidence, 'significant' is the verdict, and 0.05 is a fixed sentence nobody ever justified, with interactive figures for the tail area, the false-discovery rate, the dance of the p-values, and the Type I/II tradeoff.

p-values Significance Testing False Discovery Rate Statistical Inference Interactive
Read the essay
2026 · ~16 min read Essay

Lamps in the Dark

A geometric reading of Hidden Markov Models & the EM algorithm

When I was learning hidden Markov models, I couldn't find an explanation that really showed how they work. This piece builds a geometric, intuitive picture of hidden Markov models, along with the EM steps, forward-backward, Baum-Welch, and the Viterbi algorithm, and even how they link to PCA. Interactive diagrams and animations throughout aim to make the picture stick in your head.

Hidden Markov Models EM Algorithm Baum-Welch Forward-Backward Viterbi
Read the essay
§ 04 · Education
Jul 2026 to 2027 (Expected)
Singapore

National University of Singapore (NUS)

MSc in NUS School of Computing, specialising in Statistics

HONOR x NUS Joint Research Project, Recommender SystemsAug 2026 to Present

Research Assistant · Advisor: Prof. James Pang, NUS Business Analytics Centre

Building generative retrieval (HSTU, TIGER semantic IDs) and a multi-objective MMoE ranker for an industry feed recommender.

Bootcamps:

  • Technical Alignment Research Accelerator (TARA), Singapore Cohort, Round 2 2026 · part-time technical AI-safety programme.Sep to Dec 2026
  • Beijing University of Posts & Telecommunications (BUPT), Agentic AI Bootcamp · Fully-Funded Scholarship · 1st Place, Final Project.Jun to Jul 2026
  • University of Oxford · ML Representation Learning & Generative AI Bootcamp. Standout lectures from Tom Rainforth (intelligent data gathering) and Ricardo Silva (causal discovery and the extrapolation of causal effects).2026
Sep 2022 to Jun 2026
London, UK

Bayes Business School (City, University of London)

BSc International Business (Hons), Specialised in AI and Quantitative Methods; First-Class Honours (Highest Distinction)

Top of cohort in Quantitative Methods & Analytics, AI & Big Data, Capstone Project, and ESADE Mergers & Acquisitions.

  • NUS exchange, Singapore · Full ScholarshipJan to Jun 2025
  • ESADE Business School exchange, Barcelona, Spain · Full ScholarshipAug to Dec 2024
  • UT Austin exchange, Austin, USAAug to Dec 2023

Extracurricular Quantitative Coursework: Stanford CS229 Machine Learning, Stanford CS230 Deep Learning, MIT RES.6-012 Introduction to Probability, Stanford EE178 Probabilistic Systems Analysis, Imperial College Mathematics for Machine Learning, IBM Applied Data Science Specialization (Databases & SQL, Visualization, Python), Statistical Rethinking 2026 (R. McElreath, Max Planck).

Sep 2021 to Jun 2022
London, UK

UCL Economics & Mathematics Foundation Programme

Final grade A* · Mathematics 87%, Highest Distinction

§ 05 · Skills

Statistical Methods

Causal Inference (DiD, RCT design, causal DAGs, wait-list controlled trials, synthetic controls, propensity-score matching, Rosenbaum sensitivity bounds, uplift modelling), A/B Testing & Experimentation (variant design, power analysis, SRM detection, CUPED variance reduction, multiple-testing correction), Bayesian Statistics (PyMC 5, NUTS, hierarchical models, posterior-predictive checks, PSIS-LOO), Survival Analysis (Cox PH, Kaplan-Meier, Random Survival Forest), Hypothesis Testing (t-test, Wilcoxon signed-rank, Mann-Whitney U, chi-square, Fisher z), Stochastic Processes & Sequential Modeling (Hidden Markov Models, time-series, state-space methods), SHAP, permutation importance, Brier, isotonic and LOOCV calibration, bootstrap & Hodges-Lehmann confidence intervals, Effect-size estimation (Cohen's d, rank-biserial).

Machine Learning, Deep Learning & GenAI

Supervised/Unsupervised Learning, Gradient Boosting (XGBoost, LightGBM), Anomaly & Rare-Event Detection, Neural Networks (CNNs, RNNs, LSTMs, Transformers, Two-Tower), NLP, Computer Vision, Recommendation Systems (implicit feedback, negative sampling, embeddings & vector search), Reinforcement Learning (Q-learning, DQN, PPO + GAE, Actor-Critic), Probabilistic Graphical Models, LLMs, Prompt Engineering, RAG, OpenAI API, Anthropic Claude tool-use, Zod structured outputs, LLM-as-judge evaluation, LLM Fine-Tuning, RLHF, tool-using LLM agents (LangChain, LlamaIndex), Generative AI Applications.

Programming & Databases

Python (NumPy, pandas, scikit-learn, TensorFlow, PyTorch, statsmodels, SciPy, XGBoost, LightGBM, PyMC), TypeScript, C++, R, SQL, BigQuery, Spark/PySpark, DuckDB, React 19, Vite, Vercel Serverless, Supabase (Postgres).

MLOps, Cloud & Visualisation

Google Cloud Platform (BigQuery, Vertex AI), Docker, Kubernetes, MLOps (CI/CD, Model Deployment, Feature Pipelines, ETL/Airflow), GitHub Actions, pytest, Vitest, ruff, Git/GitHub, Jupyter, LaTeX, Tableau, Power BI, matplotlib, seaborn, Plotly.

Spoken Languages

English (Fluent), Russian (Native), Ukrainian (Native), Belarusian (Fluent), Spanish (Professional Working; advanced certification, 2026).

Extracurricular Coursework

Stanford CS229 Machine Learning, Stanford CS230 Deep Learning, MIT RES.6-012 Introduction to Probability, Stanford EE178 Probabilistic Systems Analysis, Imperial College Mathematics for Machine Learning, IBM Applied Data Science Specialization, Statistical Rethinking 2026 (R. McElreath, Max Planck).